And for good reason. Though Republican presidential nominees have carried Colorado in 10 of the last 15 elections, the state has been generally competitive for years. Despite Tillis winning 78% of the vote. U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. Higher recognition and an easier primary would be expected. Why does that matter? I know that being a senator is about working for Colorado and delivering results, and that’s exactly what I will continue to do. The Bill Cassidy and Corey Booker types. Collins is typically untouchable, but she may run for governor next year or retire in 2020, and while Gardner is a strong incumbent who arguably ran the best GOP campaign in 2014, Colorado is a very competitive state that has moved slightly left of the national average. Meanwhile, most of the 11 Democrats up for reelection seem very safe, although Republicans could credibly target incumbents in presidential swing states Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia. This does not include the special Senate election in Alabama, which will be held in December. The chart below shows historical partisan breakdown information for the chamber. Of those 17, only 4 or 5 are considered true toss-ups. Or not. The Vice President becomes the tie breaker vote. Elections to the U.S. Senate will be held on November 8, 2022, and 34 of the 100 seats are up for regular election. More recently, however, it has been sliding away from the GOP. As is clear, Democrats hold several seats in states where one might think, based on the presidential results, they have no business holding Senate seats in a polarized era. If a significant number of them lose to Republicans, it’s hard to see how Democrats could make up that ground in 2020 or 2022 based on the seats being contested. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate election forecast. Plus democratic voters have three candidates to choose from. The state of Alabama must like him though. It was run by the left-wing news site The Daily Kos, but Fox News’ poll released June 3 gave Kelly a 13-point lead. Arizona law also stipulates that the appointee must be from McCain’s party.” – Politico. 2020 US Senate Races … That 0-2 record in big-time elections is not a good look. Read the Analysis. Democrats will need to gain 3 or 4 seats to take control. A consensus outlook for the 2020 Senate elections based on the current ratings of forecasters at Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections, as well as the probabilistic FiveThirtyEight model. Democrats held the Senate in the 2010 and 2012 elections, but their nine-seat net loss on 2014’s Class II map led to the GOP taking a 54-46 majority starting in 2015, a majority they continue to hold (albeit two seats weaker after 2016) now. Yep. Susan Collins will never be able to recover in Maine if she is blacklisted by the LGBTQ community. Safe is 15% or higher. So much so, that they will vote for a different party in the real race. [2] So the current party control of 2018’s Senate Class I is 25-8 Democratic. Before he had his first midterm in 1926, Coolidge was re-elected as president in 1924. Smith has a strong following from minority groups as well as a big popularity among non-minority left-leaning residents of the district. It does seem a little early to go in on the attacks. The current 2020 Senate race ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. Angus King (I-ME) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are categorized as Democrats because they are part of the Democratic caucus even though they are independents. State law gives Ducey, a Republican, the power to fill the Senate vacancy for the next two years, until a special election is held in 2020 to select a person to complete the final two years of McCain’s term. United States Senate elections, 2022 (Owen's version), 2028 US Presidential Election (Populist America), 45th-50th Presidents of the United States (GOTUS), United States Presidential Election 2012 (LLB'sWorld), 2020 US Presidential Election (Populist America), United States Presidential Election 2016 (LLB'sWorld), United States presidential election, 2012 (Conservative America), United States Presidential Election, 2012 (President Ventura), https://future.fandom.com/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2022_(Owen%27s_version)?oldid=254589, Incumbent lost re-election, Democratic gain. This map has flipped twice in the last two election, first cementing and then dismantling a Democratic Senate majority. American Airlines (AAL) – Should Share Holders Be Worried? NC(OPEN Burr-R)Josh Stein-D PA(OPEN Toomey-R)Josh Shapiro-D WI(Johnson-R)Josh Kaul-D Democrats have a 50 … States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. Democrats picked up both seats. @Hickenlooper has made it painstakingly obvious that he would be a terrible senator, and all the proof Coloradans need are his own words. If the presidential election of 2016 has taught us anything, it’s that party voters get upset when their horse doesn’t win the race. All of those dark-red state Democratic senators are up for reelection next year. Representation in the Senate is not based on population; instead, each state gets two and only two senators, meaning that California (the most populous state) and Wyoming (the least populous) have equal say in the Senate. There are 35 seats up in 2020 - including special elections in Arizona and Georgia - of which 23 are held by the GOP. Republicans have a solid control, but with 4 or 5 seats being determined toss-ups, the Democrats only need 3 or 4 seats to gain control of the Senate. | Privacy Policy, supported the same party for president and for Senate, median House seat by presidential performance. Tip: The width in the code can be adjusted to best fit your space. Again, one could probably say the same thing about 2022 as one could say about 2020: Republicans would be overextended but Democrats wouldn’t be guaranteed anything. After McCain’s death Saturday, it will fall to Arizona Gov. Operations: Meghann Olshefski • Lauren Dixon • Kelly Rindfleisch • Sara Antel • Sara Horton. That Susan Collins helped Brett Kavanaugh get confirmed as a Supreme Court Justice, and that same Brett Kavanaugh voted no against gay-rights. Both Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville have advanced to the runoff. There would be no reason not to. That turned a slim 51-49 Democratic Senate majority into a 59-41 advantage that grew to 60-40 with Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter’s party switch, although the contested election of Sen. Al Franken (D-MN), who wasn’t seated until July 2009, followed by the death of Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) and Scott Brown’s (R) subsequent upset victory in the special election to replace Kennedy in early 2010 limited the Democrats’ filibuster-proof majority to just several months. Susan Collins of Maine and Cory Gardner of Colorado. Senate Race Latest Update Video: May 23. Will you chip in just $68 to ensure Ballotpedia remains a free, neutral resource for millions of Americans seeking trustworthy political information? Use the buttons below the map to share it on social media or embed it into a web page. External Relations: Alison Prange • Sara Key • Sarah Rosier • Kari Berger Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. Senate following the election. Of the 34 regularly scheduled elections in 2022, 12 seats were held by Democrats and 22 were held by Republicans as of January 2020. NH (Hassan-D) if Sununu-R decides to run and 2022 is a strong GOP wave election year. Still, numerous Democratic senators and advisors wasted no time taking to Twitter to be sure that Maine understood the connection here. And I am forced to fall on these generalizations because the recent news also shows nothing about Cal Cunningham. 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. Democratic voice is too strong in the Northeast. However, that could easily change after the 2020 presidential election: No two consecutive presidential elections have ever featured the exact same Electoral College map, though many have been quite similar (a recent example: Barack Obama only lost two states, Indiana and North Carolina, from his 2008 map in 2012). 1. All Rights Reserved. ELECTION 2020 PREDICTIONS: President | US House | Governors | Ranking the Senate Races by Flip Chances. https://t.co/CXg9m2FvPK. The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party. Most likely she campaigned hard in her district and had her people show up, unfortunately it wasn’t enough. Arthur Ashe Memorial Vandalized – Spray Painted With “White Lives Matter” And Swastikas. NV (Cortez Masto-D) if Sandoval-R decides to run and 2022 is a strong GOP wave election. In fact, Cal Cunningham had more total votes in his primary than Senator Thom Tillis did. And as CBS News’ Alexander Tin reported Wednesday via Kantar ad tracking, Kelly has bought nearly $10 million in future ad reservations while McSally has reserved $0 worth.” – Source. The current 2020 Senate forecast from Politico. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, both of whom are running for reelection next year, are members of the Democratic caucus and thus are counted as such here. The last good Republican performance in Class I’s elections was 1994, when the GOP netted eight seats and flipped the Senate. Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection derived from the Decision Desk | 0ptimus 2020 Senate Election Model. Calvin Coolidge's (R) first term began in August 1923 after the death of President Warren Harding (R), who was first elected in 1920. He was a speaker in the state House of Representatives for Colorado, and he has run for Senator in 2010 and the U.S. House of Reps in 2014. Today he voted to allow the kind of discrimination you claim to be working to overturn. After zero net change in both 1992 and 1998, Republicans gained four seats in Class III in 2004 and then six as part of the 2010 wave, a gain that arguably should have been bigger if not for the nomination of weak GOP candidates in Colorado, Delaware, and Nevada that year. Doug Ducey to name his successor. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (90%+). if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Communications: Kristen Vonasek • Kayla Harris • Megan Brown • Mary Dunne • Sarah Groat • Heidi Jung Let’s look at them in order. © 2020 Electoral Ventures LLC. Those voters who voted for other republicans are voting for an ideology more than a person. These represent the vast majority of the 14 total “crossover” seats in the Senate, those held by a party different than the one that captured the state in the 2016 presidential race. With a different occupant in the White House than Barack Obama, perhaps Democrats can field credible challengers in these states, but none of these states are trending Democratic. So they aren’t nobodies. Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day. UK Election Maps - Current Parliament - Home. The U.S. Senate has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents). Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. Beating out the incumbent for a Senate seat in the blue state of Colorado. Return here to share it. And unlike the House, where the entire membership is on the ballot every two years, only a third of the Senate’s membership is on the ballot each federal election cycle. If they can continue to rally Democrats in Maine based off the Brett Kavanaugh situation, then Susan Collins may be in trouble. Use their map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.October 8: Georgia (special) and Kansas move from Likely to Leans Republican; Mississippi from Safe to Likely Republican.
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