simplemaps_election.order = ['T', 'D', 'R']; //which color is shown first on click Two thirds of voters said that they would "definitely" vote for either the Democratic nominee or President Donald Trump, and these voters were about evenly split between the two candidates. The Battleground States Biden and Trump Need to Win 270. (CNN)An aura of political mystery swirls around swing states. The most recent example was the Rust Belt's White working-class voters in 2016. The site also features a series of explainers about how presidents are actually elected in the United States. Battleground Tracker: Latest polls, state of the race and more 5 things to know about CBS News' 2020 Battleground Tracker CBS News coverage of voting rights issues Arizona, Georgia, Texas)[4]. States where the election has a close result become less meaningful in landslide elections. simplemaps_election.selected.R = ['AK', 'AL', 'AR', 'ID', 'IN', 'KS', 'KY', 'LA', 'MO', 'MS', 'MT', 'ND', 'NE', 'NE1', 'NE3', 'OH', 'OK', 'TN', 'UT', 'SC', 'SD', 'WY', 'WV'];
Six states above all others have emerged as the top electoral prizes in the 2020 race for president. Political scientists David Broockman and Douglas Ahler, Just as polarized as the rest of America, swing states' Republicans and Democrats are simply. 2. There is little more information one could need to make a decision. Neither Maine, which is generally considered a Democratic-leaning state, nor Nebraska, typically thought to be safely Republican, would become battlegrounds in the event of a close national race. [34], U.S. state where neither party's candidate for election has overwhelming support, The 2016 election had two possible tipping point states, depending on how they are calculated. So, the real questions we should ask are: 1. Three are Great Lakes battlegrounds that Donald Trump carried four years ago by less than a percentage point: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In 2016, Campaigns' focus on swing states has historically raised the profile of certain region-specific issues like fracking (Ohio and Pennsylvania), auto manufacturing (Michigan and Ohio) or relations with Cuba (Florida). States in which polling shows no clear favorite are usually targeted at a higher rate with campaign visits, television advertising, get out the vote efforts by party organizers and debates. Iowa, Michigan, Maine) swinging sharply rightward, and other "Red" states moving leftward by at least 4 points (e.g. The expectation was that the candidates would look after the interests of the states with the most electoral votes. [8] Michigan would have been more relevant to the election results had the election been closer. Are Republicans as motivated to reelect Trump as Democrats are to defeat him? In all likelihood, Republican Trump or Democrat Joe Biden will have to win at least three of them to capture an electoral majority. For example, in the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton overperformed in educated, suburban states such as Virginia and Colorado compared to past Democratic candidates, while Donald J. Trump performed over standard Republican expectations in the Upper Midwest, such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In contrast, many states with large populations such as California, Texas, and New York, have in recent elections been considered "safe" for a particular party, and therefore not a priority for campaign visits and money. State ← Select All Type. Ohio has gained its reputation as a regular swing state after 1980,[24][25] and last voted against the winner in 1960. "Pennsylvania is a battleground because it's not just one state. In the midst of a strong, quasi-peacetime economy, Trump was able to shift attention to divisive immigration and identity politics to make a. [33], This is a chart of swing states using the methodology of Nate Silver for determining tipping point states, but including the other states in close contention in recent elections, ranked by margin of victory. These states are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns, especially in competitive elections. As many mathematical analysts have noted, however, the state voting in a fashion most similar to that of the nation as a whole is not necessarily the tipping-point. For his part, Biden's campaign has run television ads in regions with older populations stating that Trump's plans will "deplete Social Security within three years," a, As demographic and attitudinal shifts accumulate, some swing states become more partisan and some partisan states become unpredictable. Due to the winner-take-all method most states use to determine their presidential electors, candidates often campaign only in competitive states, which is why a select group of states frequently receives a majority of the advertisements and partisan media. [13] The presidential election in 2016 was a notable example, as it featured one of the largest historical disparities between the Electoral College and popular vote. [22] Likewise, Illinois[23] and Texas were key to the outcome of the 1960 election, Florida and New Hampshire were key in deciding the 2000 election, and Ohio was important during the 2004 election. But their size and competitiveness have made them the states most likely to decide the presidency.
Obama lost Indiana by more than ten percentage points in the closer 2012 election, but triumphed anyway as Indiana's electoral votes were not directly needed for a coalition of 270 votes ; the same scenario was with Missouri, where John McCain narrowly won by 4,000 votes in the 2008 United States presidential election, but was won by Mitt Romney by nearly 10 points in 2012 United States presidential election, indicating its GOP trends. Michigan again expected to be a key battleground, Michigan represented one of President Donald Trump’s closest victories in 2016.
Other lightly-Republican leaning states such as North Carolina and Arizona were more plausible Democratic pick-ups in 2012.
What If All States Split Their Electoral Votes. Nebraska's 2nd congressional district is also considered competitive. While swing states in past elections can be determined simply by looking at how close the vote was in each state, determining states likely to be swing states in future elections requires estimation and projection based on previous election results, opinion polling, political trends, recent developments since the previous election, and any strengths or weaknesses of the particular candidate involved. ask millions of political onlookers every four years. RCP Senate Averages.
In doing so, we also renew the romance that American politics is still about persuasion. There's something very unique about the 2020 map, The New Minority: White Working Class Politics in an Age of Immigration and Inequality, Sorry, Donald Trump: The 2020 presidential election is on. The very word "swing" suggests vacillation and a propensity to move independently from other, more consistently partisan populations, but the political orientations among voters in swing states are not so different from deeply red and blue states. While many will point to these trends as evidence of hardening partisan loyalties amid America's profound polarization, it is also a product of candidates' increasing exposure. Apply Filter Clear Filter. However, none of them were considered the tipping-point state, as Romney would not have been able to defeat Obama even if he had emerged victorious in all of them.
Between April and August, these six accounted for all of top 20 media markets in the presidential ad wars. You can use it as the basis for your own electoral college forecast. In addition, gradual shifts can occur within states due to changes in demography, geography, or population patterns. In U.S. politics, a battleground state is a state where the political race between a Republican and Democrat, usually presidential candidates, is extremely close.Due to the way that presidential elections are run in the United States, the popular vote is not as important as the the individual tally of the states.
The views expressed in this commentary are his own.
[9] In 2012, the states of North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia were decided by a margin of less than five percent. Justices Opened Door to Gerrymander Presidential Elections, How Trump Could Win Re-Election By One Electoral Vote, 3 Myths About Abolishing the Electoral College, 5 Reasons to Abolish the Electoral College, Another Look at the 2020 Battleground States, Imagining the 2024 Electoral Map After Redistricting, The Electoral College Penalizes Voters In High Turnout States, The Winner-Take-All Electoral College Isn’t In the Constitution. View more opinion on CNN. The swing-state "map" transforms between each election cycle, depending on the candidates and their policies, sometimes dramatically and sometimes subtly. 3. As former Clinton political director Doug Sosnik told Axios just after the 2018 elections: “Changing demographics and Trump have blown up the electoral map that has dominated American politics since 1992.”.
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