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nt election prediction

The answer as to who’ll win the first state or territory election conducted during the coronavirus pandemic could lie in the envelopes – but until they are opened people have turned to Burt the psychic croc. For the Territory Alliance, which styles itself as a grassroots alternative to the major parties, the election will be the first test since the party was founded in November. Hare-Clark shares a common ancestor with the Senate’s electoral system, but several key differences mean that Hare-Clark operates as a contest between candidates where the Senate’s electoral system is overwhelmingly a contest between parties. Successful candidates are highlighted in the relevant colour. The ACT Electoral Commission is actively encouraging pre-poll voting as a Covid-19 measure. Gunner told reporters on Friday the low turnout was an issue, saying “we want people in remote areas to have their voice counted and make sure their issues are heard”. Labor has a definite 10 seats, having been adjusted down from 11 last night as the election of the third Labor MLA in Ginninderra, Gordon Ramsay, now looks less certain. Despite Labor's massive majority following the 2016 election, the incoming Labor government re-appointed Purick as Speaker. In this post I want to look at final flows of preferences, were there differences caused by when people voted, how did the count unfold on election night, and was it a good result for Labor?
With only two members in the CLP caucus, Gary Higgins became opposition leader and CLP leader while Lia Finocchiaro became deputy CLP leader on 2 September. Mulka is excluded as the CLP did not run in that seat. It also won the outback seats of Barkly and Namatjira by narrow margins. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls. Independents won five seats. 30 July 2020: Nominations for candidates opened, 6 August 2020: Nominations for candidates closed, 6 August 2020: Declaration of nominations and candidate positions on ballot papers, 20 August 2020: Postal voting dispatches ceased, 21 August 2020: Last day for early voting, 4 September 2020: Last day for receipt of postal votes, 7 September 2020: Declaration of election result, This pre-election pendulum is based on post-redistribution estimates of margins calculated by ABC election analyst, This page was last edited on 2 October 2020, at 09:09.

After safety, the most-heard soundbites have been about “restarting the economy” and making the territory “the comeback capital of Australia” once the virus is under control. The Country Liberals won 8 seats, a gain of six from their landslide loss in the previous election, whilst 2 independents and 1 Territory Alliance candidate were elected. 66.5% counted, updated 6 m minutes ago Mon Monday 24 Aug August 2020 at 8:20am. Prediction: LAB retain. Labor is still in the race for two extra seats to reach 12, Ramsay’s seat in Ginninderra as well as competing with the Greens for the final seat in Brindabella. Read More »Northern Territory Election Updates, ACT 2020 Election – Post-election Updates, 2020 ACT Election – A Few Things to Watch For, Close of Nominations for 2020 Queensland Election, Early Voting at Queensland Elections and its Political Impact, Tracking the Pre-Poll Vote for the ACT Election, My ACT and Queensland Election Websites have been launched, 2020 Northern Territory Election – Analysis of Results, Eden-Monaro By-election – Preferences and Commentary on the Result. In this post I’ll track the rate of pre-poll voting for the 2020 ACT Election compared to 2016. [31], There were 111 candidates who nominated for the election—the second-highest number of candidates in a Territory election, just under the 115 who nominated in 2016.[38]. I’ve boosted the Greens to five certain seats, remarkably winning two seats in Kurrajong. This post looks at Queensland elections since 1986, how and when people have voted, as well as the differing levels of party support by vote type at the 2017 state election.Read More »Early Voting at Queensland Elections and its Political Impact. I haven’t had any time to post over the last fortnight, being too busy preparing websites and computer systems for the upcoming ACT and Queensland elections. There have been no new cases since 31 July. Members were elected through full preferential instant-runoff voting in single-member electorates, after the optional preferential voting system introduced for the 2016 election was abolished by the Electoral Legislation Amendment Act 2019 in April 2019. The Territory Alliance won a single seat, with Robyn Lambley narrowly holding her seat of Araluen; party leader Terry Mills and Jeff Collins both lost their seats. This post has been blogging the counting for each day. While urban areas have had their mailing addresses automatically updated, Loganathan said “that system does not operate in areas where there is no postal delivery to the street address”. ABC election analyst Antony Green called the election for the Labor Party nearly three hours after the polls closed. *Due to boundary changes, Namatjira was notionally CLP at the time of this election. Margins are notional estimates by Antony Green. The NT has only had 34 cases of Covid-19 and all have recovered. The ALP maintained its dominance of the Darwin/Palmerston area, holding all but two of the region's seats–accounting for almost all of its majority.

Northern Territory chief minister Michael Gunner has made his handling of the coronavirus crisis the focus of the campaign.

With counting complete for the 2020 Northern Territory election, it’s time for a preliminary analysis of the results and summary of changes to the composition of the Legislative Assembly. While more than 50% of Northern Territory voters have cast their ballot ahead of Saturday’s poll, there could be record-low turnout in some remote areas, with election officials worried about a growing “participation divide”. Prof Rolf Gerritsen, from Charles Darwin University’s Northern Institute, expects Labor to win 11 to 14 seats on Saturday with 13 needed for a majority. For the chief minister and the CLP leader, Finocchiaro, the picture is complicated by the emergence of a genuine third party option, the new Territory Alliance. This is a running blog post that I have updated through the two weeks of counting. [27], At the time of the election, eight parties were registered with the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (NTEC). While the overall early voting rates will be exaggerated by the circumstances of holding an election under Covid-19 precautions, the switch to early voting continues a trend that has been accelerating over the last decade. Madura McCormack, NT News. The Country Liberal Party, who will need to win 13 of the 25 seats, would need to see significant swings at the election to see a third new government in as many elections. Add to that a third party, and many are tipping a hung parliament, with a minority Labor government or a CLP-Territory Alliance coalition being sworn in. With counting complete for the 2020 Northern Territory election, it’s time for a preliminary analysis of the results and summary of changes to the composition of the Legislative Assembly. Country Liberal party leader Lia Finocchiaro has hammered Labor on the economy and the NT’s debt. First, late and polling day enrolment are allowed in the ACT so the roll number will rise slightly. The incumbent centre-left Labor Party (ALP) majority government, led by Chief Minister Michael Gunner, won a second consecutive four-year term of government. The parliament has fixed four-year terms, with elections to be held on the fourth Saturday of August every four years. Details of the redistribution can be found in this post, and detail on changes in party composition can be found in my ABC NT Election Preview. Election set to be one of the most unpredictable for years, despite 53% of voters casting their ballot early or in the mail, Last modified on Fri 21 Aug 2020 23.32 BST.
Mills, who was previously pro-fracking, announced in June that the party would ban it if elected – contrary to the policy of both Labor and the CLP. Who do you trust to make the hard decisions?”. [11], Additionally, Giles lost his seat of Braitling to Labor, making him only the second Chief Minister/Majority Leader to lose their seat at an election. But in reality, remote turnout in the territory has been an issue for decades.”. In December 2018, the Labor Government dismissed three sitting members of the parliamentary party; the Aboriginal Affairs Minister Ken Vowles, Assistant Minister Jeff Collins and backbencher Scott McConnell. I am supervising updates to the ABC’s NT 2020 Election website. It was the first time that a sitting Northern Territory government was defeated after only one term. Swings and change in seats below are based on adjusting the 2016 result for the 2019 redistribution. [10], At the 2016 election, the one-term incumbent Country Liberal Party (CLP) minority government, led by Chief Minister Adam Giles, was defeated by the Labor Party Opposition, led by Opposition Leader Michael Gunner. The difference starts with the ballot paper.Read More »2020 ACT Election – A Few Things to Watch For. The Liberal Party have eight certain seats, reduced to a single seat in Kurrajong with the defeat of Candice Burch, and currently only certain of one seat in Ginnenderra, still in the race for a second seat against Labor. Notes on each contest are set out in the post below.Read More »ACT 2020 Election – Post-election Updates. Updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 presidential election based on polling. Araluen.

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